Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 3.960393 4.648076 5.409187 6.312566 7.354043 8.515505 9.907355
2025-09-14 2.842974 3.748178 4.859442 6.317201 8.171560 10.443412 13.428575
2025-09-21 2.157943 3.139265 4.453349 6.325845 8.906609 12.316491 17.136755
2025-09-28 1.703588 2.698908 4.135106 6.330646 9.567285 14.120332 20.954849
2025-10-05 1.521261 2.590633 4.233765 6.897147 11.047512 17.192536 26.876470
2025-10-12 1.307472 2.381120 4.129336 7.119066 12.018489 19.614418 32.116430
2025-10-19 1.140908 2.210213 4.046278 7.342840 12.995669 22.128054 37.750627
2025-10-26 0.976999 2.008167 3.870628 7.372176 13.637739 24.156417 42.806721
2025-11-02 0.809812 1.764767 3.577414 7.141810 13.788300 25.366522 46.611285
2025-11-09 0.660387 1.524640 3.247075 6.785614 13.652590 26.047862 49.550415
2025-11-16 0.563613 1.372899 3.060099 6.668368 13.930318 27.468105 53.908503
2025-11-23 0.487184 1.249478 2.908637 6.595040 14.273824 29.028964 58.656389
2025-11-30 0.446738 1.202699 2.915796 6.859844 15.341199 32.099937 66.617040
2025-12-07 0.394512 1.117136 2.824594 6.902417 15.962451 34.381786 73.311976
2025-12-14 0.348296 1.036616 2.731057 6.925018 16.542782 36.640815 80.187111
2025-12-21 0.307831 0.962117 2.638617 6.934878 17.093542 38.890999 87.257800
2025-12-28 0.303585 0.986645 2.793510 7.552892 19.081219 44.336160 101.427960
2026-01-04 0.280804 0.953005 2.794776 7.794902 20.230155 48.095177 112.375289
2026-01-11 0.260325 0.921688 2.796795 8.038495 21.410245 52.031684 124.052197
2026-01-18 0.233794 0.865420 2.721476 8.070478 22.080691 54.892551 133.620821
2026-01-25 0.200885 0.780340 2.550102 7.819968 22.017343 56.071157 139.527544
2026-02-01 0.168483 0.688348 2.341204 7.432492 21.552846 56.262210 143.187145
2026-02-08 0.147864 0.632497 2.230409 7.304923 21.749911 58.042882 150.702668